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The race to a COVID-19 vaccine
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Since the beginning of the year, coronavirus has wreaked havoc across the world. The pandemic, which was first detected in China, has infected people in 188 countries and lead to over 14 national lockdowns, something that previously would have been unimaginable.
Since 31 December 2019 (and as of 06 September 2020), 26,921,111 cases of COVID-19 have been reported, including 881,831 deaths worldwide. On top of this devastating loss of life, the pandemic has sent significant parts of the economy into turmoil and caused historic levels of unemployment in the United States and around the world. The World Economic Forum suggested COVID-19 pandemic will likely end up costing between $8.1 and $15.8 trillion globally.
In response to this crisis, the global innovation community mobilised quickly to initiate the development of a vaccine for COVID-19, the disease that coronavirus causes. Hundreds of individuals and institutions—in academia, biotechnology, government, and pharmaceuticals—embarked on one of the most consequential scientific endeavours in living memory. FPC is in the the thick of the race, at the final stages of executing investment in one of the leading companies.
Funding poured in from governments, multilateral agencies, not-for-profit institutions, and the private sector. Regulators showed uncanny speed in working with innovators. Now, months later, there are over 169 COVID-19 vaccine candidates under development, with 26 of these in the human trial phase, according to the World Health Organization.
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Watch Guardian Science Editor Ian Sample explain how vaccines work, run through some of the main obstacles to creating one for the coronavirus and to preparing it for public use, and telling us which scenario he thinks is most realistic in the next 18 months. Read the latest Guardian covid vaccine tracker here
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Path to Development
Vaccines mimic the virus – or part of the virus – they protect against, stimulating the immune system to develop antibodies. They must follow higher safety standards than other drugs because they are given to millions of healthy people.
Vaccines normally require years of testing and additional time to produce at scale, but scientists are hoping to develop a coronavirus vaccine within 12 to 18 months. This would make a COVID-19 vaccine the fastest developed vaccine in history.
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How are vaccines tested?
In the pre-clinical stage of testing, researchers give the vaccine to animals to see if it triggers an immune response.
In phase 1 of clinical testing, the vaccine is given to a small group of people to determine whether it is safe and to learn more about the immune response it provokes.
In phase 2, the vaccine is given to hundreds of people so scientists can learn more about its safety and correct dosage.
In phase 3, the vaccine is given to thousands of people to confirm its safety – including rare side effects – and effectiveness. These trials involve a control group which is given a placebo.
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Five key updates on the COVID-19 vaccine race
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The WHO have this week published a document outlining the draft landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines - identifying some of the leaders in the race.
To bring more clarity to the conversation, McKinsey have conducted an in-depth review of the COVID-19-vaccine pipeline and the range of potential immunization and demand scenarios. Here is what has been found:
1. Vaccine developers and government officials are publicly reporting timelines for potential emergency use of vaccine candidates between the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021
2. The early data on vaccine trials are promising. Even though uncertainties remain, the first Phase 3 trial results should provide “valuable insights for the field and inform ongoing and future development activities aimed not only at controlling the current global pandemic but also for effective long-term immunization strategies against the disease.”
3. The discrete characteristics of the virus, the sheer number of development efforts, and innovators’ unprecedented access to funding all provide reasons to believe that a COVID-19 vaccine can be developed faster than any other vaccine in history. Historical attrition rates would suggest that the vaccine pipeline could yield more than seven approved products over the next few years
5. Vaccine manufacturers have announced cumulative capacity that could produce as many as one billion doses by the end of 2020 and nine billion doses by the end of 2021
4. A number of hurdles remain, including validating unproven platform technologies, demonstrating vaccine candidates’ safety and protection against COVID-19, and delivering the highest-impact vaccine profiles
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Challenge Investing
Within our universe, we have a significant number of companies that are helping to profitably address this significant and timely global challenge. If you’d like to invest in some of the most promising growth companies based on top research then please don't hesitate to get in touch.
This comes with very best wishes from everyone at Future Planet Capital.
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